过去最强烈的那几次事件，曾改变人类历史的进程——研究者如是说。一个正在形成中的事件，正被拿来与历史情形相互比对。

The biggest episodes of the past have altered the course of human events, according to researchers. An emerging one is drawing historic comparisons.

作者：奇科·哈兰（Chico Harlan）

By Chico Harlan

2026 年 5 月 21 日，《纽约时报》

May 21, 2026, The New York Times

在人们理解它之前很久，厄尔尼诺现象就已经在人类身上留下了痕迹。

Well before it was understood, the El Niño phenomenon was leaving its marks on humanity.

厄尔尼诺指的是太平洋风场与水温的剧烈转变，它能够彻底改写全球天气型态。几个世纪以来，这类自然规律曾引发大规模干旱与热浪，并加剧疫情。

El Niño is the name given to powerful shifts in Pacific Ocean winds and water temperatures that can drastically transform global weather patterns. Over the centuries these natural patterns have sparked epic droughts and heat waves, and have intensified epidemics.

一些学者甚至声称，在古埃及的政治与经济危机中，或在一千多年前秘鲁境内莫切文明的覆亡中，都能辨认出厄尔尼诺的指纹。而1877 与 1878 年，由厄尔尼诺助推的饥荒在整个热带地区夺去数百万人的生命，并把既有的不平等固化下来——正如一篇研究论文所言，这些不平等「后来被称作『第一世界』与『第三世界』」。

Some academics even claim to see the fingerprints of El Niño on political and economic crises in ancient Egypt, or on the downfall of the Moche civilization in present-day Peru, more than 1,000 years ago. And in 1877 and 1878, a famine fueled by El Niño killed millions of people across the tropics, hardening inequities that, as one research paper put it, “would later be characterized as the ‘first world’ and ‘third world.’”

眼下，世界正进入一个新的厄尔尼诺阶段。研究者发出警告，它可能是记录以来最强的一次之一；他们援引这段历史，是为了警示：当自然力量达到最大强度时，可能导致剧烈的动荡与深重的苦难。

Right now, the world is entering a new El Niño phase. Researchers are warning it could be one of the strongest on record and are invoking this history as an admonition that natural forces, when they reach their highest magnitude, can lead to profound volatility and hardship.

每一次厄尔尼诺都不尽相同。但总体而言，它会使美洲部分地区变得更湿润，同时压制大西洋飓风季。这一现象增加了南亚与东南亚、澳大利亚以及南部非洲出现干旱的风险。

Every El Niño is distinct. But in general, it makes for wetter conditions in some parts of the Americas while suppressing the Atlantic hurricane season. The phenomenon raises the risk of dryness in South and Southeast Asia, Australia, and southern Africa.

当然，本轮厄尔尼诺尚处于形成早期，未必真如宣传所说那般强劲。但若预报准确，这将是一个惊人的庞然大物，而其后果将会在一个韧性远强于以往、却也出现了新脆弱性的世界上展开。

Of course, the current El Niño is in the early stages of formation and might not live up to the hype. But if the forecasts prove accurate, it would be a whopper and its consequences would play out across a world that has grown far more resilient but also has new vulnerabilities.

与那些早期年代相比，如今各国用海洋观测仪与预警系统追踪厄尔尼诺事件。农业技术要精密得多，许多易受粮食冲击影响的国家都持有战略粮食储备。没有人预言会出现大规模饥荒。